BaseballSim Picks

2026-06-16  ·  15 games  ·  10,000 sims/game  ·  Ensemble: MC 53% + Elo 42% + Poisson 5%
📊 History ↻ Refresh
STRONG BETS 5
VALUE BETS 1
LEANS 6
VEGAS 0/15
KALSHI 07:02 ET
SIMS RAN 00:36 ET
Strong Bets — High Confidence Edge
SF @ ATL
Truist Park  ·  6/16 @ 7:15 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
ATL
CI: [53%, 55%]
72.4%
edge +20.0pp  |  fair -262
line -110
xR Home
3.4
xR Away
2.8
xTotal
6.2
Home RL
40%
MC
56.1%
Poisson
76.4%
Elo
76.4%
O7 31%
O8 24%
O9 16%
O10 12%
O11 8%
No Kalshi market found
CWS @ NYY
Yankee Stadium  ·  6/16 @ 7:05 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
NYY
CI: [50%, 52%]
64.4%
edge +12.0pp  |  fair -181
line -110
xR Home
4.4
xR Away
4.4
xTotal
8.8
Home RL
39%
MC
51.0%
Poisson
66.3%
Elo
70.0%
O7 57%
O8 48%
O9 38%
O10 31%
O11 24%
No Kalshi market found
CLE @ MIL
American Family Field  ·  6/16 @ 7:40 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
MIL
CI: [58%, 60%]
64.2%
edge +11.8pp  |  fair -179
line -110
xR Home
4.2
xR Away
3.2
xTotal
7.4
Home RL
45%
MC
59.4%
Poisson
62.8%
Elo
86.1%
O7 43%
O8 35%
O9 27%
O10 21%
O11 15%
No Kalshi market found
TB @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium  ·  6/16 @ 10:10 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
LAD
CI: [61%, 63%]
64.0%
edge +11.6pp  |  fair -178
line -110
xR Home
4.1
xR Away
2.9
xTotal
7.1
Home RL
48%
MC
62.7%
Poisson
62.5%
Elo
83.6%
O7 40%
O8 32%
O9 24%
O10 18%
O11 13%
No Kalshi market found
MIN @ TEX
Globe Life Field  ·  6/16 @ 8:05 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
TEX
CI: [69%, 70%]
62.1%
edge +9.7pp  |  fair -164
line -110
xR Home
5.7
xR Away
3.4
xTotal
9.0
Home RL
56%
MC
69.6%
Poisson
60.2%
Elo
74.2%
O7 58%
O8 50%
O9 41%
O10 34%
O11 27%
No Kalshi market found
Value Bets — Positive Edge
COL @ CHC
Wrigley Field  ·  6/16 @ 8:05 PM ET
VALUE BET
PICK
CHC
CI: [64%, 66%]
61.8%
edge +9.4pp  |  fair -162
line -110
xR Home
4.9
xR Away
3.4
xTotal
8.3
Home RL
51%
MC
65.4%
Poisson
60.7%
Elo
70.9%
O7 53%
O8 44%
O9 35%
O10 27%
O11 20%
No Kalshi market found
Leans — Informational Only
BAL @ SEA
T-Mobile Park  ·  6/16 @ 9:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
SEA
60.4%
edge +8.0pp
xR Home
5.4
xR Away
3.8
xTotal
9.3
Home RL
51%
KC @ WSH
Nationals Park  ·  6/16 @ 6:45 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
WSH
58.4%
edge +6.0pp
xR Home
4.2
xR Away
5.1
xTotal
9.4
Home RL
32%
LAA @ AZ
Chase Field  ·  6/16 @ 9:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
AZ
57.9%
edge +5.5pp
xR Home
3.0
xR Away
4.0
xTotal
7.0
Home RL
26%
MIA @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park  ·  6/16 @ 6:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
PHI
55.6%
edge +3.2pp
xR Home
3.1
xR Away
4.0
xTotal
7.1
Home RL
27%
DET @ HOU
Daikin Park  ·  6/16 @ 8:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
HOU
54.8%
edge +2.4pp
xR Home
5.1
xR Away
3.2
xTotal
8.3
Home RL
53%
NYM @ CIN
Great American Ball Park  ·  6/16 @ 7:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
NYM
59.8%
edge +7.4pp
xR Home
3.6
xR Away
4.4
xTotal
7.9
Home RL
30%
No Edge — Pass
TOR @ BOS
6/16 @ 6:45 PM ET
Home 50%  ·  xR 4.4/4.0
SD @ STL
6/16 @ 7:45 PM ET
Home 52%  ·  xR 4.3/3.5
PIT @ ATH
6/16 @ 9:40 PM ET
Home 54%  ·  xR 5.4/3.7
Generated 00:36 ET  ·  Data: MLB Stats API  ·  Min edge threshold: 4pp  ·  Strong bet: edge ≥8pp & WP ≥62%  ·  Kelly fraction: ¼  ·  Past performance does not guarantee future results.