BaseballSim Picks

2026-09-15  ·  15 games  ·  10,000 sims/game  ·  Ensemble: MC 53% + Elo 42% + Poisson 5%
📊 History ↻ Refresh
STRONG BETS 1
VALUE BETS 1
LEANS 9
VEGAS 0/15
KALSHI 06:02 ET
SIMS RAN 23:07 ET
Strong Bets — High Confidence Edge
ATH @ TB
Tropicana Field  ·  9/15 @ 6:40 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
TB
CI: [72%, 74%]
63.2%
edge +10.8pp  |  fair -172
line -110
xR Home
5.6
xR Away
3.0
xTotal
8.6
Home RL
60%
MC
73.0%
Poisson
60.1%
Elo
84.2%
O7 55%
O8 47%
O9 38%
O10 31%
O11 23%
No Kalshi market found
Value Bets — Positive Edge
DET @ TOR
Rogers Centre  ·  9/15 @ 7:07 PM ET
VALUE BET
PICK
TOR
CI: [62%, 64%]
61.3%
edge +9.0pp  |  fair -159
line -110
xR Home
5.0
xR Away
3.5
xTotal
8.5
Home RL
50%
MC
63.1%
Poisson
59.8%
Elo
75.8%
O7 53%
O8 45%
O9 37%
O10 30%
O11 23%
No Kalshi market found
Leans — Informational Only
KC @ HOU
Daikin Park  ·  9/15 @ 8:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
HOU
60.2%
edge +7.8pp
xR Home
6.9
xR Away
3.5
xTotal
10.4
Home RL
65%
SF @ STL
Busch Stadium  ·  9/15 @ 7:45 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
STL
59.4%
edge +7.0pp
xR Home
4.0
xR Away
3.7
xTotal
7.8
Home RL
40%
MIA @ AZ
Chase Field  ·  9/15 @ 9:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
AZ
58.8%
edge +6.4pp
xR Home
4.6
xR Away
3.7
xTotal
8.2
Home RL
44%
CWS @ CLE
Progressive Field  ·  9/15 @ 6:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
CLE
58.6%
edge +6.2pp
xR Home
3.5
xR Away
3.3
xTotal
6.8
Home RL
37%
NYY @ MIN
Target Field  ·  9/15 @ 7:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
MIN
57.9%
edge +5.5pp
xR Home
4.2
xR Away
4.5
xTotal
8.7
Home RL
36%
SEA @ LAA
Angel Stadium  ·  9/15 @ 9:38 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
LAA
57.1%
edge +4.7pp
xR Home
4.0
xR Away
3.9
xTotal
7.9
Home RL
38%
BAL @ NYM
Citi Field  ·  9/15 @ 7:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
NYM
56.8%
edge +4.4pp
xR Home
4.7
xR Away
3.3
xTotal
8.0
Home RL
49%
SD @ COL
Coors Field  ·  9/15 @ 8:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
SD
57.9%
edge +5.5pp
xR Home
5.5
xR Away
8.0
xTotal
13.6
Home RL
26%
LAD @ CIN
Great American Ball Park  ·  9/15 @ 6:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
LAD
60.2%
edge +7.9pp
xR Home
4.6
xR Away
7.5
xTotal
12.0
Home RL
22%
No Edge — Pass
MIL @ PIT
9/15 @ 6:40 PM ET
Home 50%  ·  xR 3.4/4.4
PHI @ WSH
9/15 @ 6:45 PM ET
Home 47%  ·  xR 4.1/4.0
ATL @ CHC
9/15 @ 7:40 PM ET
Home 52%  ·  xR 4.3/4.2
BOS @ TEX
9/15 @ 8:05 PM ET
Home 51%  ·  xR 3.8/3.7
Generated 23:07 ET  ·  Data: MLB Stats API  ·  Min edge threshold: 4pp  ·  Strong bet: edge ≥8pp & WP ≥62%  ·  Kelly fraction: ¼  ·  Past performance does not guarantee future results.