BaseballSim Picks

2026-07-31  ·  15 games  ·  10,000 sims/game  ·  Ensemble: MC 53% + Elo 42% + Poisson 5%
📊 History ↻ Refresh
STRONG BETS 2
VALUE BETS 2
LEANS 8
VEGAS 0/15
KALSHI 16:02 ET
SIMS RAN 23:08 ET
Strong Bets — High Confidence Edge
SF @ SD
Petco Park  ·  7/31 @ 9:45 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
SD
CI: [69%, 71%]
63.0%
edge +10.6pp  |  fair -170
line -110
xR Home
4.8
xR Away
2.8
xTotal
7.6
Home RL
55%
MC
70.3%
Poisson
62.2%
Elo
67.1%
O7 46%
O8 37%
O9 28%
O10 22%
O11 16%
No Kalshi market found
MIN @ SEA
T-Mobile Park  ·  7/31 @ 10:10 PM ET
STRONG BET
PICK
SEA
CI: [55%, 57%]
62.2%
edge +9.9pp  |  fair -165
line -110
xR Home
4.4
xR Away
3.9
xTotal
8.3
Home RL
42%
MC
55.8%
Poisson
62.0%
Elo
74.8%
O7 52%
O8 44%
O9 34%
O10 28%
O11 21%
No Kalshi market found
Value Bets — Positive Edge
STL @ TOR
Rogers Centre  ·  7/31 @ 7:07 PM ET
VALUE BET
PICK
TOR
CI: [74%, 76%]
61.9%
edge +9.5pp  |  fair -163
line -110
xR Home
6.0
xR Away
3.0
xTotal
9.0
Home RL
63%
MC
74.9%
Poisson
59.6%
Elo
71.9%
O7 57%
O8 49%
O9 40%
O10 33%
O11 27%
No Kalshi market found
WSH @ ATL
Truist Park  ·  7/31 @ 7:15 PM ET
VALUE BET
PICK
ATL
CI: [39%, 41%]
60.6%
edge +8.2pp  |  fair -154
line -110
xR Home
3.3
xR Away
3.9
xTotal
7.3
Home RL
29%
MC
41.2%
Poisson
62.2%
Elo
69.8%
O7 43%
O8 34%
O9 25%
O10 18%
O11 12%
No Kalshi market found
Leans — Informational Only
MIA @ NYM
Citi Field  ·  7/31 @ 7:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
NYM
59.2%
edge +6.9pp
xR Home
4.1
xR Away
2.7
xTotal
6.8
Home RL
49%
PHI @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards  ·  7/31 @ 7:05 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
BAL
58.4%
edge +6.0pp
xR Home
4.2
xR Away
4.4
xTotal
8.6
Home RL
36%
KC @ COL
Coors Field  ·  7/31 @ 8:40 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
COL
57.9%
edge +5.5pp
xR Home
7.6
xR Away
9.2
xTotal
16.8
Home RL
32%
AZ @ CLE
Progressive Field  ·  7/31 @ 7:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
CLE
57.9%
edge +5.5pp
xR Home
3.4
xR Away
3.4
xTotal
6.8
Home RL
35%
BOS @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium  ·  7/31 @ 10:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
LAD
56.5%
edge +4.1pp
xR Home
5.0
xR Away
2.9
xTotal
7.9
Home RL
56%
CWS @ TB
Tropicana Field  ·  7/31 @ 7:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
TB
54.7%
edge +2.3pp
xR Home
3.4
xR Away
2.8
xTotal
6.2
Home RL
40%
MIL @ LAA
Angel Stadium  ·  7/31 @ 9:38 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
MIL
55.6%
edge +3.2pp
xR Home
3.2
xR Away
4.1
xTotal
7.3
Home RL
28%
PIT @ CIN
Great American Ball Park  ·  7/31 @ 6:10 PM ET
LEAN
LEAN
PIT
55.7%
edge +3.3pp
xR Home
5.7
xR Away
5.7
xTotal
11.4
Home RL
39%
No Edge — Pass
NYY @ CHC
7/31 @ 2:20 PM ET
Home 50%  ·  xR 4.0/4.2
TEX @ HOU
7/31 @ 8:15 PM ET
Home 54%  ·  xR 3.7/4.4
DET @ ATH
7/31 @ 9:40 PM ET
Home 47%  ·  xR 4.5/5.8
Generated 23:08 ET  ·  Data: MLB Stats API  ·  Min edge threshold: 4pp  ·  Strong bet: edge ≥8pp & WP ≥62%  ·  Kelly fraction: ¼  ·  Past performance does not guarantee future results.